More than 2,700 deaths linked to May and June heatwaves, study suggests

More than 2,700 people in England and Wales died from heat-related causes during May and June's record hot spells, experts estimate.

The analysis showed that climate change significantly increased the number of deaths, as 42% died as a result of the extra heat caused by human activity - mostly burning fossil fuels.

Researchers from Imperial College London, the Met Office, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) estimated that there were around 2,700 excess deaths in England and Wales over the two heatwaves.

The analysis found that about 550 people were estimated to have died because of heat-related causes in nine days of the May heatwave, and about 2,200 in the 11 days around the June heatwave.

Around 59% of the deaths in May, some 327 people, and 38%, some 825 people, of those in June could be attributed to the extra heat caused by climate change, they found.

The researchers warn that maximum daytime temperatures are about 3C-4C hotter than they would be without climate change, increasing the risks from the heat.

Dr Clair Barnes, research associate in extreme weather and climate change at Imperial College London, said: "We all love the sun, but people need to be aware that we are now seeing dangerous climate-change fuelled heat that is claiming lives, disrupting schools and hospitals and shutting down transport and infrastructure.

"It's time we woke up to the fact that we now live in a country with dangerously hot summers. To protect people during future extremes, we must urgently adapt to the reality of the climate we now have, and double down on global efforts to reach net zero emissions to stop this from getting worse."

Researchers used historical mortality records and established peer-reviewed methods to model fatalities during both heatwaves, with a focus on England and Wales.

The paper also found that nighttime temperatures of the intensity seen would have been essentially impossible in a world without human-caused warming.

Dr Mark McCarthy, manager of climate attribution at the Met Office, said it's "clear that human-caused climate change is leading to more frequent and more intense summer heatwaves".

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"This intensification is driving many impacts, including those affecting human health and mortality and other issues, such as agriculture, effects on transport infrastructure and biodiversity," he said.

While southern England saw the highest temperatures, estimates suggest the death rate was similar to the Midlands.

The researchers suggested this could be the result of people further north being more vulnerable to the impacts of heat due to being less exposed.

LSHTM assistant professor in climate and geo-spatial modelling, Dr Malcolm Mistry, said more frequent and intense heatwaves were "rapidly evolving into a major health risk for people in the UK".

"It is vital that action on adapting Britain's homes, workplaces, and critical infrastructure to extreme heat outpaces these health risks, especially if we are to protect those most vulnerable to its impacts, such as older people, babies, and children," he said.

Professor Lea Berrang Ford, head of the UK Health Security Agency's Centre for Climate and Health Security, said: "These modelled estimates are based on past trends in temperature effects on mortality and provide an important indication of the potential health impacts of sustained hot weather, particularly for the most vulnerable among us."

The researchers added that the June heatwave was especially severe in terms of high humidity, which decreases the body's ability to cool itself down by sweating.

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